Kuroda Index Pitcher Prediction Results: Koji Uehara and Kenshin Kawakami
ByA prediction is no good without results, so today I will report to you the accuracy results of my predictions for Koji Uehara of the Baltimore Orioles and Kenshin Kawakami of the Atlanta Braves who both went to MLB from Japan in 2009.
Every year the index gets tweaked with new data. Let’s first take a look at my prediction and accuracy results for Kenshin Kawakami:
| Kenshin Kawakami | MLB 1st year projection | MLB 1st year actual | |||||||
| joined MLB at age: 33 in 2009 | G | 29 | G | 32 | |||||
| came from: Central League | W | 13 | W | 7 | |||||
| went to: NL Central, Braves | L | 10 | L | 12 | |||||
| IP | 167.0 | IP | 156.1 | ||||||
| H | 164 | H | 153 | ||||||
| BB | 54 | BB | 57 | ||||||
| K | 133 | K | 105 | ||||||
| ERA | 3.96 | ERA | 3.86 | ||||||
| H/9 | 8.84 | H/9 | 8.82 | ||||||
| BB/9 | 2.89 | BB/9 | 3.29 | ||||||
| K/9 | 7.16 | K/9 | 6.05 | ||||||
| WHIP | 1.30 | WHIP | 1.34 | ||||||
Aside from being a little off on my K/9 and wins losses, I am very happy with the accuracy of my prediction. Wins and losses are the most difficult categories to predict due to outside factors. I have always maintained that the rates (X/9, WHIP, etc.) are much more accurate than the solid numbers (H, K, etc.). I have almost predicted Kawakami’s ERA and WHIP perfectly.
Next let’s look at Koji Uehara. As I stated in the Kuroda Index, injuries are one factor that can not be predicted. However, injury history is a factor and should be duly noted. I said that Uehara has an injury history but when predicting numbers that is very difficult to factor in. Below is my original prediction compared to actual results with his injury-plagued 2009 season. After that is my prediction next to Uehara’s projected stats if he had not gotten injured, which I believe is a more accurate judgement on my index accuracy.
| Koji Uehara | MLB 1st year projection | MLB 1st year ACTUAL | |||||||
| joined MLB at age: 33 in 2009 | G | 30 | G | 12 | |||||
| came from: Central League | W | 5 | W | 2 | |||||
| went to: AL East, Orioles | L | 11 | L | 4 | |||||
| IP | 148.7 | IP | 66.2 | ||||||
| H | 152 | H | 71 | ||||||
| BB | 41 | BB | 12 | ||||||
| K | 108 | K | 48 | ||||||
| ERA | 4.51 | ERA | 4.05 | ||||||
| H/9 | 9.22 | H/9 | 9.65 | ||||||
| BB/9 | 2.51 | BB/9 | 1.63 | ||||||
| K/9 | 6.52 | K/9 | 6.53 | ||||||
| WHIP | 1.28 | WHIP | 1.25 | ||||||
| Koji Uehara | MLB 1st year projection | MLB 1st year no injury | |||||||
| joined MLB at age: 33 in 2009 | G | 30 | G | 27 | |||||
| came from: Central League | W | 5 | W | 4 | |||||
| went to: AL East, Orioles | L | 11 | L | 9 | |||||
| IP | 148.7 | IP | 149 | ||||||
| H | 152 | H | 159 | ||||||
| BB | 41 | BB | 27 | ||||||
| K | 108 | K | 108 | ||||||
| ERA | 4.51 | ERA | 4.05 | ||||||
| H/9 | 9.22 | H/9 | 9.65 | ||||||
| BB/9 | 2.51 | BB/9 | 1.63 | ||||||
| K/9 | 6.52 | K/9 | 6.53 | ||||||
| WHIP | 1.28 | WHIP | 1.25 | ||||||
K/9 and WHIP are almost perfect predictions and ERA is not far off. Uehara gave many less walks than he was project to give. Aside from that, I am very pleased with my predictions on him.
I will soon give my predictions for Igarashi and Takahashi of the New York Mets for 2010 to subscribers of my Japan Baseball News Weekly newsletter.
Brandon Siefken has covered Japanese pro and amateur baseball since 1991. He is currently provides services to a Major League Baseball team and has been quoted in The New York Times, Bloomberg, the Japan Pro Baseball Fan Handbook and Media Guide and other publications regarding Japanese baseball. Brandon has appeared on Will Carroll’s Baseball Prospectus radio show and is a regular writer for Bob Bavasi’s JapanBall.com site. Brandon has also authored several articles including “The Kuroda Index” and “Yu Darvish: A 315 Pitch Scouting Report.”
Each year Brandon publishes the “Japan Baseball News Weekly”( http://www.japanbaseballnews.com/?page_id=1543 ) newsletter with updated weekly stats for every player from April to October. Brandon can be contacted at brandon@japanball.com.
