A prediction is no good without results, so today I will report to you the accuracy results of my predictions for Koji Uehara of the Baltimore Orioles and Kenshin Kawakami of the Atlanta Braves who both went to MLB from Japan in 2009.
Every year the index gets tweaked with new data. Let’s first take a look at my prediction and accuracy results for Kenshin Kawakami:
| Kenshin Kawakami | MLB 1st year projection | MLB 1st year actual | |||||||
| joined MLB at age: 33 in 2009 | G | 29 | G | 32 | |||||
| came from: Central League | W | 13 | W | 7 | |||||
| went to: NL Central, Braves | L | 10 | L | 12 | |||||
| IP | 167.0 | IP | 156.1 | ||||||
| H | 164 | H | 153 | ||||||
| BB | 54 | BB | 57 | ||||||
| K | 133 | K | 105 | ||||||
| ERA | 3.96 | ERA | 3.86 | ||||||
| H/9 | 8.84 | H/9 | 8.82 | ||||||
| BB/9 | 2.89 | BB/9 | 3.29 | ||||||
| K/9 | 7.16 | K/9 | 6.05 | ||||||
| WHIP | 1.30 | WHIP | 1.34 | ||||||
Aside from being a little off on my K/9 and wins losses, I am very happy with the accuracy of my prediction. Wins and losses are the most difficult categories to predict due to outside factors. I have always maintained that the rates (X/9, WHIP, etc.) are much more accurate than the solid numbers (H, K, etc.). I have almost predicted Kawakami’s ERA and WHIP perfectly.
Next let’s look at Koji Uehara. As I stated in the Kuroda Index, injuries are one factor that can not be predicted. However, injury history is a factor and should be duly noted. I said that Uehara has an injury history but when predicting numbers that is very difficult to factor in. Below is my original prediction compared to actual results with his injury-plagued 2009 season. After that is my prediction next to Uehara’s projected stats if he had not gotten injured, which I believe is a more accurate judgement on my index accuracy.
| Koji Uehara | MLB 1st year projection | MLB 1st year ACTUAL | |||||||
| joined MLB at age: 33 in 2009 | G | 30 | G | 12 | |||||
| came from: Central League | W | 5 | W | 2 | |||||
| went to: AL East, Orioles | L | 11 | L | 4 | |||||
| IP | 148.7 | IP | 66.2 | ||||||
| H | 152 | H | 71 | ||||||
| BB | 41 | BB | 12 | ||||||
| K | 108 | K | 48 | ||||||
| ERA | 4.51 | ERA | 4.05 | ||||||
| H/9 | 9.22 | H/9 | 9.65 | ||||||
| BB/9 | 2.51 | BB/9 | 1.63 | ||||||
| K/9 | 6.52 | K/9 | 6.53 | ||||||
| WHIP | 1.28 | WHIP | 1.25 | ||||||
| Koji Uehara | MLB 1st year projection | MLB 1st year no injury | |||||||
| joined MLB at age: 33 in 2009 | G | 30 | G | 27 | |||||
| came from: Central League | W | 5 | W | 4 | |||||
| went to: AL East, Orioles | L | 11 | L | 9 | |||||
| IP | 148.7 | IP | 149 | ||||||
| H | 152 | H | 159 | ||||||
| BB | 41 | BB | 27 | ||||||
| K | 108 | K | 108 | ||||||
| ERA | 4.51 | ERA | 4.05 | ||||||
| H/9 | 9.22 | H/9 | 9.65 | ||||||
| BB/9 | 2.51 | BB/9 | 1.63 | ||||||
| K/9 | 6.52 | K/9 | 6.53 | ||||||
| WHIP | 1.28 | WHIP | 1.25 | ||||||
K/9 and WHIP are almost perfect predictions and ERA is not far off. Uehara gave many less walks than he was project to give. Aside from that, I am very pleased with my predictions on him.
I will soon give my predictions for Igarashi and Takahashi of the New York Mets for 2010 to subscribers of my Japan Baseball News Weekly newsletter.
Brandon Siefken has covered Japanese pro and amateur baseball since 1991. He is currently provides services to a Major League Baseball team and has been quoted in The New York Times, Bloomberg, the Japan Pro Baseball Fan Handbook and Media Guide and other publications regarding Japanese baseball. Brandon has appeared on Will Carroll’s Baseball Prospectus radio show and is a regular writer for Bob Bavasi’s JapanBall.com site. Brandon has also authored several articles including “The Kuroda Index” and “Yu Darvish: A 315 Pitch Scouting Report.”
Each year Brandon publishes the “Japan Baseball News Weekly”( http://www.japanbaseballnews.com/?page_id=1543 ) newsletter with updated weekly stats for every player from April to October. Brandon can be contacted at brandon@japanball.com.
Tetsuya Yamamoto - Pitcher - Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Kobe
Tetsuya Yamamoto - Yakult Swallows
DOB : 9/4/85 
age : 24
throws / hits : R / R
height cm : 179
weight kg : 74
height inch : 70.5 Yakult Swallows
weight lbs : 163.1 round 2
Tetsuya Yamamoto is a slightly lanky pitcher who has a great dropping forkball and deceptive slider that I see translating to the pro game. He throws 146km and has the aggressive mind set of a closer. He has a nasty streak and likes to go after batters. He is known for his quick, dropping throws and offsets those with a nice breaking drop curve. He has pro-level stuff and a pro-level mind for controlling the game. He needs to work on his command. He can get too aggressive and let his placement get away from him at times. Yamamoto uses his long arms and whip action and has nice form.
Outlook: The Swallows currently have one of the better closers in the game in Lim, but I don’t see Read More→
Japanese College Baseball: Tokyo Big 6 Spring Schedule
By · CommentsThe Japanese college baseball Tokyo Big 6 League released their Spring 2010 schedule as follows.
The main players to watch are:
Waseda University pitcher Tatsuya Oishi
Saito - P - Waseda University
Oishi - P - Waseda University
Kagami - P - Hosei University
There are a bevy of other players one rank below these three as well. The Tokyo Big 6 is the premiere college baseball league in Japan.
| Week | Date | Start Time | Game One | Game Two |
| 1 | 4/10 (Sat) | 11:00 | Tokyo - Meiji | Rikkio - Waseda |
| 4/11 (Sun) | 11:00 | Waseda - Rikkio | Meiji - Tokyo | |
| 2 | 4/17 (Sat) | 11:00 | Tokyo - Keio | Hosei - Rikkio |
| 4/18 (Sun) | 11:00 | Rikkio - Hosei | Keio - Tokyo | |
| 3 | 4/24 (Sat) | 11:00 | Meiji - Waseda | Hosei - Keio |
| 4/25 (Sun) | 11:00 | Keio - Hosei | Waseda - Meiji | |
| 4 | 5/1 (Sat)* | 10:30 | Meiji - Rikkio | Tokyo - Waseda |
| 5/2 (Sun)* | 10:30 | Waseda - Tokyo | Rikkio - Meji | |
| 5 | 5/8 (Sat) | 11:00 | Rikkio - Keio | Tokyo - Hosei |
| 5/9 (Sun) | 11:00 | Hosei - Tokyo | Keio - Rikkio | |
| 6 | 5/15 (Sat)* | 10:30 | Keio - Meiji | Waseda - Hosei |
| 5/16 (Sun)* | 10:30 | Hosei - Waseda | Meiji - Keio | |
| 7 | 5/22 (Sat) | 11:00 | Meiji - Hosei | Rikkio - Tokyo |
| 5/23 (Sun)* | 10:30 | Tokyo - Rikkio | Hosei - Meji | |
| 8 | 5/29 (Sat) | 13:00 | Keio - Waseda | |
| 5/30 (Sun) | 13:00 | Waseda - Keio |
Admission is as follows:
| Seat | Cost |
| Special | 1,300 yen |
| Infield | 1,100 yen |
| Infield Student | 800 yen |
| Outfield | 700 yen |
| Cheering | 500 yen |
All games played at Meiji Jingu Kyujo. I plan to be attending on the 24th of April among several other dates.
Brandon Siefken has covered Japanese pro and amateur baseball since 1991. He is currently provides services to a Major League Baseball team and has been quoted in The New York Times, Bloomberg, the Japan Pro Baseball Fan Handbook and Media Guide and other publications regarding Japanese baseball. Brandon has appeared on Will Carroll’s Baseball Prospectus radio show and is a regular writer for Bob Bavasi’s JapanBall.com site. Brandon has also authored several articles including “The Kuroda Index” and “Yu Darvish: A 315 Pitch Scouting Report.”
Each year Brandon publishes the “Japan Baseball News Weekly”( http://www.japanbaseballnews.com/?page_id=1543 ) newsletter with updated weekly stats for every player from April to October. Brandon can be contacted at brandon@japanball.com.
Tokaidai Sagami High School pitcher Shinta Hifumi
Japan Baseball News Weekly newsletter subscribers on Monday received a bonus issue of the newsletter. The bonus issue is a Japanese high school baseball Spring Senbatsu tournament preview. The issue covers the following topics:
2010 Japanese High School Spring Senbatsu Tournament Preview
- Senbatsu Players to Watch… Top Pitchers
(stats, measurements, data and scouting reports on the following players)
Shinta Hifumi - Pitcher - Tokaidai Sagami High School, Kanagawa
Takuro Ito - Pitcher - Teikyo High School, Tokyo
Kohei Arihara - Pitcher - Koryo High School, Hiroshima
Yosuke Shimabukuro - Pitcher - Konan High School, Okinawa
Shota Suzuki - Pitcher - Teikyo High School, Tokyo
Akinori Nagatomo- Pitcher - Tokaidai Boyo High School, Chiba
- Senbatsu Players to Watch… Top Hitters
(stats, measurements, data and scouting reports on the following players)
Haruki Nishikawa - OF - Chiben Wakayama High School, Wakayama
Kento Itohara - 3B - Kaisei High School, Shimane
Sadahiro Yamamoto - 1B - Chiben Wakayama High School, Wakayama
Tatsuya Maruko - 1B - Koryo High School, Hiroshima
Yoshitaka Isomura - C - Chukyodai Chukyo High School, Aichi
Shunsuke Michibata - C - Chiben Wakayama High School, Wakayama
Toru Idei - C - Kaisei High School, Shimane
- Senbatsu Players to Watch… The Rest
Naoki Shirane - Pitcher - Kaisei, Shimane
Junpei Morimoto - Pitcher - Chukyodai Chukyo, Aichi
Michiori Okabe - Outfielder - Teikyo, Tokyo
Takuya Sakamoto - Catcher - Tokai Boyo, Chiba
Ken Okamoto - Pitcher - Kobe Int’l University High School
Tomoyo Matano - Pitcher - Hokusho, Hokkaido
Yuki Miyagawa - Outfielder - Chiben Wakayama, Wakayama
Masataka Yoshida - Outfielder - Tsuruga Kehi, Fukui
Shogo Nakamura - Outfielder - Tenri, Nara
Naoya Emura - Catcher - Osaka Toin, Osaka
- Senbatsu Predictions… Money in the Bank
Brandon Siefken’s tournament winner predictions
If you or someone you know would like to subscribe to Japan Baseball News Weekly, which covers Japanese pro and amateur baseball and includes a weekly updated Japanese pro baseball NPB stats data base of every player in Japan, click this link:
http://www.japanbaseballnews.com/?page_id=1543
Japanball scout and writer Brandon Siefken edits the newsletter and orders before April 1st will be processed at $14.95, discounted from a regular price of $24.
Masato Nakazawa - Pitcher - Toyota Motors
Masato Nakazawa- Yakult Swallows
DOB : 2/16/85
age : 25
throws / hits : L / L
height cm : 179
weight kg : 80
height inch : 70.5 Yakult Swallows
weight lbs : 176.4 round 1
Masato Nakazawa is a game-ready pitcher who is polished and should fill a role as a starter. He is not a flame thrower, but he is a very good technician with his off-speed and breaking pitches. He has a great breaking slider, a very good change-up and likes to use his looping drop curve to get batters out. I would like to see more velocity on his fastballs, but his style is to use his fastball as a decoy rather than a weapon. At 25 years old, there is not a lot of room to develop. His curves are pro level and the rest of his game is fairly average. He will start but he won’t light anything up. He should be a dependable, but slightly inconsistent, NPB pitcher.
Outlook: Yakult has Nakazawa pegged for their rotation as early as 2010 or 2011. He is a seasoned and experienced lefty, but he won’t light the world on fire. He will have good and bad outings. Overall he should develop into a fairly average pitcher who has a healthy arsenal of pitches to throw at batters. Yakult envisions Nakazawa, Yoshinori, Tateyama and Muranaka as their future rotation. That is not exactly top-class, but it is better than what they have now. This was a fair pick for a proven game-ready stater at SP for the Swallows.
Brandon Siefken has covered Japanese pro and amateur baseball since 1991. He is currently an intern for a Major League Baseball team and has been quoted in Bloomberg, The New York Times and other publications regarding Japanese baseball. Brandon is a regular writer for Bob Bavasi’s JapanBall.com site and has authored several articles including “The Kuroda Index” and “Yu Darvish: A 315 Pitch Scouting Report.”
Each year Brandon publishes the “Japan Baseball News Weekly”( http://www.japanbaseballnews.com/?page_id=1543 ) newsletter with updated weekly stats for every player from April to October. Brandon can be contacted at brandon@japanball.com.
Japanese Baseball Draft Analysis NPB - Yakult Swallows
By · CommentsTeam Analysis - Tokyo Yakult Swallows
pitching out of 12 teams 9th record 71-72-1
hitting out of 12 teams 7th placed 3rd of 6
pitching potential C- draft grade B+
hitting potential D
The Tokyo Yakult Swallows entered the 2009 draft with no huge holes but some wish list positions to fortify. They are particularly weak at 1st base, catcher, relief pitching and, as any other team, could use more pitching.
The Swallows ended the draft with two game-ready pitchers, a game-ready infielder and two very polished high school prospects who all have a chance to play NPB ball if developed properly.
Overall, Yakult did very well for themselves, adding to their Read More→
Koji Toyofuku - Shortstop - Tosu High School
Koji Toyofuku - SoftBank Hawks
DOB : 5/17/91
age : 18
throws / hits : R / L
height cm : 180
weight kg : 76
height inch : 70.9 SoftBank Hawks
weight lbs : 167.6 round 5
Koji Toyofuku does not have much going for him except his speed, and even that is not upper-class. I am not sure why Toyofuku was picked, there are far too many aspects he needs to work on. He has decent size and at best has a small chance to develop into a sub-average to average shortstop. Perhaps he has a chance to make a name for himself as a pinch-runner, but he is not fast enough in my opinion. I feel this was a wasted pick, Toyofuku is a bad hitter and does not seem to have the basics to develop hitting or fielding to the point he can be a regular at the pro level.
Outlook: I do not know what to say about this pick. Shortstop is a solid position for SoftBank, as Kawashima is good and still only 29 years old. Even if they needed a shortstop, Read More→
Keiji Nakahara - SoftBank Hawks
Keiji Nakahara - Outfielder - Asia University
DOB : 7/10/87
age : 22
throws / hits : R / R
height cm : 183
weight kg : 86
height inch : 72.0 SoftBank Hawks
weight lbs : 189.6 round 4
Keiji Nakahara has great size and a fabulous arm. He plays defense well, has good speed and is a fair hitter for average and power. Overall, he is a very rounded player who will eventually be successful at the pro level in NPB. If he develops properly, he has the potential to become all-star material with his defense and arm. I do not think he will ever be a long-ball power hitter, but he should be able to develop into a dependable 280+ hitter in NPB. Nakahara is a lock to play in NPB and is a great pick at this spot. He is very close to being game-ready already.
Outlook: Nakahara is SoftBank’s future left-fielder, look for Nakahara to start there as soon as 2011 or 2012. He is a very Read More→
Yusei Kikuchi to Start 2010 In The Minors
By · Comments
Seibu Lions rookie Yusei Kikuchi (L) jokes around after practice in Miyazaki camp on 2/25/10
Seibu Lions skipper Watanabe told the media on the 25th that prized pitching phenom rookie Yusei Kikuchi will start the 2010 season in the minor leagues. “He is not top-level material yet.” said Watanabe.
Kikuchi entered camp in Miyazaki being told he had a shot to start in the rotation, and had been putting in late nights of 140+ throw sessions to get his chance.
Watanabe opened the door for a 2010 Kikuchi debut in NPB however, by following the comments with “We will see if he can get up to par soon in the farm system.”
Yuki Shimooki - Pitcher - Seiko Gakuin High School
Yuki Shimooki - SoftBank Hawks
DOB : 9/8/91
age : 18
throws / hits : R / R
height cm : 180
weight kg : 78
height inch : 70.9 SoftBank Hawks
weight lbs : 172.0 round 3
Yuki Shimooki is one of the most polished pitchers to come out of high school in this draft. He throws 146km and mixes in very nice breaking pitches and off-speed pitches. His movement on his pitches is top class, even at the pro level and his change-up is excellent. Shimooki is a competitor who is aggressive and goes right after the batters. He has a Wild Thing mentality but does not have top velocity on his pitches. He is more of a magician than a heat thrower. He has room to develop into a very good middle-relief guy in the form of Tadashi Settsu in a few years. This is one of SoftBank’s best picks and the investment could really pay off for them if they are willing to wait a few years for Shimooki to develop.
Outlook: Shimooki is a very talented pitcher out of high school, but he does not strike me as a starter or closer. I would peg him for middle-relief or set-up. His off-speed pitches and curves are great, and his velocity is not bad. If he can put on a little weight and add to his velocity to match his aggressive attitude, he could be an above average pitcher in NPB. SoftBank has one of the best middle relief units in baseball, thanks to Settsu. Kawahara and Shimooki could be mixed in in two or three years to make the group even more formidable. Shimooki will take at least two years to come to fruition. He is still raw but has a very good base in all aspect of the game to build on.
Brandon Siefken has covered Japanese pro and amateur baseball since 1991. He is currently an intern for a Major League Baseball team and has been quoted in Bloomberg, The New York Times and other publications regarding Japanese baseball. Brandon is a regular writer for Bob Bavasi’s JapanBall.com site and has authored several articles including “The Kuroda Index” and “Yu Darvish: A 315 Pitch Scouting Report.”
Each year Brandon publishes the “Japan Baseball News Weekly” ( http://www.japanbaseballnews.com/?page_id=1543 ) with updated weekly stats for every player from April to October. Brandon can be contacted at brandon@japanball.com.
